New releases from the IWSR forecasts that the global beverage alcohol market is expected to grow by US$34 billion over the next decade, driven by resilient demand, evolving demographics and strategic shifts in consumption across emerging markets.
For those of us immersed in the Scotch whisky sector, that projection is less surprising than it is affirming. Scotch has always been a slow, deliberate performer – one that tends to move steadily forward while others surge and retract. But beneath the surface, the category is changing in very real ways.
India is now poised to become the single largest market for Scotch whisky by 2027, a development long predicted by those watching consumption trends, import liberalisation and the maturation of India’s middle class. At the same time, Turkey is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of over 4% up until 2034, positioning it as Scotch’s fourth-largest market by 2030, despite almost 90% of the population identifying themselves as teetotal (World Population Review 2024).
For the whisky world, and those who move within it, that signals something much deeper than numbers.
At Speyside Capital, we read movements like these not just as demand forecasts, but as indicators of long-term relevance. Where Scotch earns respect, it tends to hold it, and in markets like India and Turkey, that respect is beginning to look more generational than seasonal.
Scotch whisky exports to Turkey surged in 2024, rising by 36.7% to reach £178 million, up from £131 million in 2023. This marks a significant post-Covid recovery, representing a 279.5% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, when exports stood at £47 million (US$59.2 million).
It’s important to note that much of the current demand in these emerging countries is still heavily led by bulk imports and blended whisky. This isn’t a limitation, but a natural step in the broader adoption curve. Blends often serve as the entry point for new consumers, building familiarity with the category and driving overall market education. Over time, this rising interest paves the way for greater demand in the premium segment, particularly aged single malts. As consumer sophistication grows, so too does the trading activity and appetite for rarer, higher-quality Scotch whiskies.
For our private clients and partners, we never define success by short-term market movements. But we do believe in paying attention to the undercurrent — where growth is forming, and what it’s telling us about value and global appreciation of provenance.
Owning a cask of Scotch isn’t just about the liquid or the label. It’s about participating in a category that is quietly strengthening its global foothold, not through flash campaigns or overnight trends, but through time and global cultural alignment.
What the IWSR data tells us is what we’ve known for some time: the world is still leaning toward whisky. Just not loudly. And that’s exactly the kind of signal we like to follow.
