Recent analysis by Commercial Spirits Intelligence highlights the stark contrasts in Scotch whisky’s growth profile over the past 15 years. India and Japan dominate in volume growth, but smaller emerging markets across Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe are showing explosive compound growth rates.
"As someone deeply involved in whisky investment and distribution, I see the data through both a cyclical and a structural lens. The whisky industry, like oil, is cyclical by nature: stock is produced, aged, bottled, shipped to warehouses and retailers, consumed slowly, and then replenished. This creates inevitable “restocking and depletion” cycles, which can distort the short-term export picture."
We saw this most clearly in the post-pandemic surge of 2022–23, when distributors overstocked, only to cut back abruptly in 2024. These corrections, however, are not the same as long-term demand shifts.
Yes, mature markets in Europe and the U.S. face headwinds: younger demographics consuming less alcohol, stiff competition from new-world whiskies and spirits like tequila, and signs of saturation.
"Scotch whisky has a built-in resilience. Its core audience is older, more affluent, and driven by quality rather than quantity. In developed markets, I expect a gradual shift towards “less but better” consumption - premium single malts and higher-quality blends - not a collapse in demand."
Meanwhile, the real growth story is abroad. Africa’s demographic surge, combined with rising middle-class wealth, mirrors the path of Asia 20 years ago. From Kenya and Nigeria to smaller markets like Togo and Zimbabwe, percentage growth in Scotch consumption is eye-catching. Collectively, dozens of small “wins” across emerging markets can more than offset flatlining consumption in the West.
The lesson? Don’t mistake short-term inventory cycles or shifting youth preferences in mature markets for the bigger picture. Scotch whisky is not a declining industry; it is a globalising one. And in my view, the future belongs to those who can straddle both worlds: safeguarding premium positioning in the West while taking bold steps into new frontiers abroad.
