New in Forbes by Paul Kopec, CEO of Speyside Capital
In a recent Forbes Business Council article, Paul Kopec, CEO of Speyside Capital, takes a structural look at geographic diversification – a key factor in understanding risk and resilience across the global spirits industry.
Kopec explains that the degree to which a spirits category is geographically diversified can significantly influence its vulnerability to economic cycles, regulatory shifts and trade policy changes. Scotch whisky, for example, enjoys a broad global distribution, with significant exports to Europe, Asia and North America, helping buffer it against downturns in any single market.
In contrast, other spirits show more concentrated exposure. Irish whiskey has seen rapid growth but remains heavily reliant on the United States as its single largest export destination. Tequila exports are even more U.S.-centric, with over 70% headed there, which increases the category’s sensitivity to fluctuations in that market.
Similarly, American whiskey and bourbon are driven mainly by domestic consumption, while Canadian whisky also leans heavily on the U.S. market for volume and value. These patterns highlight the different risk profiles that arise when categories depend heavily on one region versus having a truly global footprint.
Beyond geography, Kopec notes that other structural factors, such as trade policy exposure, supply chain constraints, product segments and domestic vs. export balances, also shape how resilient a spirit category may be in an uncertain global environment.
